Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 75167.958106 79431.713582 83698.468666 88285.481516 93074.158787 97922.735903 103199.903566
2025-04-06 67920.835138 74415.157282 81100.468842 88486.961981 96409.543964 104642.149723 113833.745939
2025-04-13 62567.337041 70553.441078 78960.648101 88450.850031 98845.163737 109863.037340 122404.218257
2025-04-20 59290.558333 68478.065920 78330.787881 89649.653587 102259.298520 115840.869905 131540.336371
2025-04-27 56641.030266 66804.469054 77881.273948 90801.201429 105406.148879 121352.859546 140028.607541
2025-05-04 54059.974931 64992.277049 77083.267753 91380.913695 107756.233246 125854.619264 147296.954618
2025-05-11 51495.223380 63026.126586 75954.717057 91438.116032 109386.308591 129444.816739 153460.944039
2025-05-18 49335.122536 61397.581738 75095.043598 91692.709311 111146.515790 133109.632272 159659.133352
2025-05-25 47319.084287 59828.653902 74205.685579 91820.200469 112680.838010 136456.327244 165453.207797
2025-06-01 46049.864248 59076.156735 74212.655872 92944.951297 115338.536785 141080.069131 172726.371911
2025-06-08 44210.322602 57550.456293 73223.434827 92814.969130 116454.912821 143859.484971 177816.170995
2025-06-15 43308.546980 57122.170478 73512.750318 94185.495492 119337.593560 148713.989824 185367.411329
2025-06-22 42170.477942 56371.261739 73391.560541 95053.969529 121631.294695 152906.384488 192200.951080
2025-06-29 40733.056686 55193.040043 72700.833053 95187.543832 123007.837375 155991.766652 197720.525695
2025-07-06 39295.164862 53959.584609 71892.616684 95131.298040 124116.740578 158732.519710 202818.941410
2025-07-13 38576.691778 53612.708683 72165.304784 96398.831330 126844.938067 163440.238403 210323.801969
2025-07-20 37883.554877 53267.753235 72415.369886 97619.156359 129506.047999 168071.100975 217758.371843
2025-07-27 36958.886544 52585.676470 72206.450555 98233.677723 131393.683765 171747.467433 224033.356759
2025-08-03 35840.788596 51610.498041 71587.224353 98294.286750 132560.730536 174520.425881 229194.341595
2025-08-10 34870.876884 50799.627545 71151.223832 98564.231011 133974.182596 177591.550151 234731.147427
2025-08-17 33892.949005 49946.062953 70630.889617 98699.409116 135196.827944 180415.127506 239963.254202
2025-08-24 33396.810954 49727.138641 70929.766070 99891.906102 137774.381149 184951.513962 247369.034111
2025-08-31 32389.717642 48778.160618 70233.965103 99754.102808 138615.106212 187282.321595 251996.158217